We now have less than thirty days to go until the next presidential election on November 3rd, 2020. While there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this election, one thing that’s not as much of a mystery is what effect the election results will have on the Long Island real estate market. We can’t see the future, but we can use our experience as Realtors in the New York market and data from past elections to make our predictions about what will happen during the next four years in America.
If President Trump Wins a Second Term as President
There’s always uncertainty in an election year and the housing market often reflects that. Historically, many buyers and sellers wait until after the election to make their move which usually means that the election year, or at least the months leading up to the election, are a bit lackluster. Yet President Trump is in office at this moment in time when we’re seeing an explosion of buyers in the Long Island housing market, propelled both by low interest rates and the need to change their current living situation after being cooped up at home for months. If President Trump wins a second term, we’ll likely see a continuation of this status quo.
While it’s difficult to find details of an exact housing plan on President Trump’s campaign website, recent issues that may come to fruition if he wins a second term include ending the Obama-era Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) program which aims to make housing more affordable in wealthier neighborhoods. President Trump’s administration has also discussed privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In 2017, President Trump’s administration also passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which means it won’t be on the table to be potentially repealed if he secures a second term. This act, while benefitting some Americans, was not universally loved as some homeowners saw an increase in their tax bill rather than a reduction.
If Joe Biden Becomes the 46th President of the United States
As stated on his campaign website, Joe Biden is committed to “rebuilding the middle class and ensuring that this time everyone comes along.” In his housing plan, Joe Biden puts a clear focus on ending discriminatory practices, solving homelessness, lowering the cost of housing, and providing more paths to homeownership, among other campaign promises. If Joe Biden is elected President and if he is able to lay down laws that move the needle on his vision, then we may see a further increase in prospective homebuyers in the years to come. Homeownership has risen in recent years and Biden’s plan may help keep it on an upward trend. However, the current issue on Long Island and in many other parts of the country is not a lack of willing and ready buyers, but available homes at their price point.
In addition, when a new President is elected we sometimes see a rollback of the previous administration’s work. Though Biden’s plan does not specifically call for the repeal of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it may be on the chopping block for his administration. Particularly as funding will be needed for some of the new programs Biden envisions, like the First Down Payment Tax Credit.
What Will Happen Either Way
No matter who gets elected, we will likely see both buyers and sellers pull back a bit from the Long Island housing market in November. If the last election and recent years have shown us anything, there’s likely to be some contention and controversary after November 3rd. Already hesitant buyers and sellers may delay their plans until the dust settles. Once the issues are resolved though, those same buyers and sellers will likely return to the market in force. That means the Long Island real estate market in January 2021 and spring 2021 in general could be particularly active. Especially if interest rates remain low in the new year, which they likely will. Wondering if now is the right time for you to buy or sell a home on Long Island? Already planning to make your move in 2021? We are here to help – reach out to us to get started today!
The Pesce & Lanzillotta Team, at BHHS Laffey International Realty
Office: 516-888-9711
Email: info@pl-team.com
